Finance Research
Long-form research notes on markets, valuation models, macro context, and disciplined investing.
Monte Carlo simulations explore how wealth may develop under different return and risk scenarios. Using an ETF savings plan, we explain 100,000 simulated market paths, volatility, inflation, fees, and the model-based likelihood of reaching a financial goal.
Where did the FIRE movement come from? Part 1 explores Joe Dominguez, Vicki Robin and Mr. Money Mustache and the philosophy behind Financial Independence, Retire Early: reducing dependence on paid employment and gaining greater control over your time.
Historical analysis of $10,000 invested from 2012 through 2025: savings, private pension insurance, MSCI World, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, including inflation, real purchasing power and drawdowns. Not investment advice.
How could rising ECB rates affect EUR/THB? An analysis of the euro-area/Thailand rate differential, the probability of further ECB hikes and concrete exchange-rate scenarios up to 40 THB per euro.
At the beginning of September 2026, U.S. gross federal debt stood at approximately $40.1 trillion while the money supply has expanded over time. What does M2 mean, how does today's monetary system work, and why is a scarce asset like Bitcoin relevant in this context?
What happens if Bitcoin becomes a small strategic portfolio allocation? A quantitative analysis of River’s capital-flow model and the Bitcoin Power Law for 2029–2031.
The Bitcoin Power Law model describes Bitcoin's long-term price development as a mathematical relationship between the age of the network and its price. This report explains the model, its assumptions, what it can tell us, and where its limitations begin.